Data Snapshot: Labour Force - Dead Cat 'Fall'?

The key points in this report are:

 

  • The unemployment rate ticked lower to 5.2% in September. The drop was driven by a fall in the participation rate and has partly reversed the recent trend of a rising unemployment rate.  Nonetheless, there continues to be a risk that the unemployment rate trends higher.
  • Employment growth remains solid. There were 14.7k jobs added to the economy in September following a 37.9k gain in August. The most recent gain was driven by an increase in full-time jobs of 26.2k. Part time employment fell 11.4k.
  • By State, a large increase in QLD (25.3k) offset falls in NSW (-23.0k) and WA (-5.9k). There were broad gains across the other states including VIC (8.6k), SA (1.5k) and Tas (2.2k).
  • A rising participation rate has added to the persistence of excess capacity in the labour market. While, the participation rate dropped 0.1 percentage points to 66.1% in September, the participation rate remains elevated, and is close to a record high.
  • Sluggish leading indicators such as business confidence and conditions and an uncertain global environment point to downside risks for employment growth in the near term. The unemployment rate remains well above the RBA’s 4.5% estimate of full employment.
  • While the fall in the unemployment rate in today’s data lessens the likelihood that the RBA will lower rates as soon as November, the ongoing risk that the unemployment rate will trend upwards keeps open the case for the RBA to cut rates further.

 

Please see the attached report for more information.



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