Data Snapshot: Labour Force - Easter Bunny Bonanza

Good afternoon, 

The key points are: 

  • The Easter bunny came early - just don’t tell the littlies! Jobs jumped by 25.7k in March, which was much higher than the median consensus expectation for a rise of 15.0k. Moreover, February’s job gain was revised higher, from 4.6K reported initially to 10.7k.
  • The economy has seen a loss of momentum through the second half of last year and in the early part of this year, but the slower momentum has not flowed through to the jobs market. Instead, jobs growth shows signs of acceleration. The three-month, six-month and twelve-month moving averages lifted in March.
  • The jobs rise in March was driven by a sharp gain in full-time jobs of 48.3k. In the year to March, nearly 290k full-time jobs have been added to the economy, which is the largest since February 2018.
  • The unemployment rate rose from 4.9% in February to 5.0% in March. The rise in this jobless rate was due to a lift in the participation rate from 65.6% in February to 65.7% in March. This participation rate is just shy of the all-time high.
  • The RBA is hoping for a resolution in coming months to the tensions between the strength in the labour market and the weakness in economic growth. The RBA may need to wait a little longer before this resolution is found. The risks are the cash rate is likely to remain unchanged while the conundrum continues.



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