Data Snapshot: Trade Balance - Surplus Still Sizeable

Good afternoon,

 Australia’s trade surplus narrowed from a 13-month high of $1,937 million in June to $1,551 million in July. The surplus remains sizeable, and has been in excess of $1 billion in five out of the last seven months.

• Exports fell 1.0% in July, after strong gains in the previous two months. Exports were 13.7% higher on a year ago, which was the strongest annual growth in 10 months.
• Imports rose just 0.1% in July following a 0.8% decline in June. The weakness in imports adds to a range of signs of softer momentum in the domestic economy in the early second half of the year after a stellar first half. In particular, declines in imports of consumer goods and capital goods suggest downside risk for consumer and business spending.
• Exports should continue to be supported by the ramp up of LNG production. However, the ongoing uncertainty regarding global trade policies is becoming an increasing downside risk for the world economy and global trade. While Australia is less directly affected by the impact of tariffs, the impact on key global trading partners and the potential dent to confidence is a key issue.

 

Please see the attached report for more information.

 

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